McKinsey audio podcast on increasing investment in emerging markets:
David Wessel's column in the WSJ is always a good read. He writes clearly and focuses on topics related to macroeconomics. Today, Wessel discusses a McKinsey report on global savings (Farewell to Cheap Capital, Dec. 2010). McKinsey is the "google" of think tanks - they attract the cream of the crop and do everything. The report's conclusion is not surprising - it is just handy to have numbers. Basically, real interest rates are headed higher as China and emerging markets stop flooding the world with saving and start investing in their own infrastructure. While rich world households and governments are saving more, they are probably not saving enough to plug the gap. According to Wessel, McKinsey estimates that real long term rates may increase by 1.5%.
If you believe this will happen within 10 years then: 1. refinance that mortgage while rates are low if you can, 2. maybe wait to buy an annuity (higher rates are good for savers), and 3. count on slower world growth eventually.
Wessel's article (Dec 9, 2010):
McKinsey written report on Farewell to Cheap Capitol (Dec 2010):